Definitions:
"The deficit" = the yearly amount the government overspends.
"The debt" = the total accumulation of years of government borrowing.
"Yearly increase of the debt" = amount the debt increase in one fiscal year.

Note: In any honest system the yearly debt increase would always equal the deficit.
(That is... in an honest system.)

In The Rock Report of the Serria Madre, I describe a possible down turn in the economy associated with the balanced budget. (I stated it as a possibility, but I believe it is unavoidable.) So the question of the day is... now that both Congress and the President are claiming balance in fiscal 1999, can we now expect to see any indications of my logical conclusions being either correct or, way off base?

Answer: No.

The claim of balance in 1999 appears to be based on the trust fund system being what they call "OFF BUDGET". It is a book keeping method designed to keep the true nature of the trust funds out of the public eye, since the trust funds can not function without debt. (Reference: The Curse of the Rock Report.) This means that despite the fact the federal budget is in balance, the debt, will none the less increase by about 120 billion dollars. (This estimation is based on 1998 data from "Statistical Abstract of the United States 1998," U.S. Department Of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census, Section 10, page 339, table 537. This book is available at your local library. 1999 data is not available yet so I am going to extrapolate. (I will correct it when the 1999 volume comes out.)

In this chart the red columns indicate the yearly deficit, the blue indicate the yearly increase in the debt, (not the debt itself). The debt stands at $5.7 trillion. As you can see the yearly increase is coming down, (definitely a good thing), but is now no where near zero. This chart states, quit clearly that the government is still borrowing money. And that money will keep the economy at artificially high levels.
This is of course, in direct conflict with any claim of a balanced budget. The claims of planing to pay down the debt are even more outrageous. In Washington, if the debt is not quit as high as it was predicted the previous year, then politicians will claim they have reduced the debt, even though that debt will have increased. This is called, by some, “SPIN”. I call it “Bullshit”. You can call it what you want. This is an example of what I meant in The Earth versus the Rock Report, when I said the Government is playing us for suckers.

OK the new data is available. I posted it in "It came from the Rock Report.